As the overall market continues to move sideways, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim its local range highs as support. After short-term volatility, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut, the cryptocurrency could be poised to close the month on a positive note.
Bitcoin Nears Multi-Month Bullish Run
On Wednesday, Bitcoin retested the $117,000 resistance for the first time in nearly a month before being rejected. The cryptocurrency has been hovering between the $107,000-$116,000 levels since late August, falling to the local lows at the start of September.
Amid the retracement, investors expected to see another “Rektember,” as it has historically been one of BTC’s weakest months. Notably, data shows that BTC’s returns during September have mostly been red throughout the years, with an average negative return of 2.99%.
However, the flagship crypto’s price has had a positive streak over the last two years, recording returns of 3.91% and 7.29% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Analyst Crypto Jelle suggested that with less than two weeks of the month, Bitcoin appears to be setting up for a multi-month green run.
Last week, BTC recovered from the early September dip, breaking out of the crucial $114,000 level and turning it into support during the weekend. As a result, the cryptocurrency currently has a positive return of 6.35%, its second-best September, according to the analytics platform.
Jelle noted that “a green September has historically resulted in the next 2, 3, or even 6 consecutive months closing in the green too.” Based on this, he suggested that if Bitcoin keeps its positive performance for the rest of the month, “Q4 looks very promising for BTC.”
BTC Retests Key Area Amid Volatility
Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin had a weekly close above $114,000 and is retesting this area as support throughout this week’s pullbacks. This could lead to volatile downside wicks below this crucial level if this week’s close occurs above $114,000.
On the contrary, failing to hold this level in the weekly timeframe could jeopardize BTC’s chances of a third price discovery uptrend.
Overall, BTC needs to retest and hold $114k as support on the Weekly and any downside volatility below it would likely end up as a wick by the end of the week with the new Weekly Close.
Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut and Its Impact on Bitcoin
On September 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the rate range to 4%–4.25%. This move came in response to weak job growth over the summer, with an average of only 27,000 jobs added per month from May to August, a sharp decline compared to 123,000 per month earlier in the year.
Despite pressure from President Trump for more aggressive monetary easing, the rate cut was moderate and framed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell as a “risk management” measure. Internal divisions emerged, as newly confirmed Fed governor Stephen Miran dissented, favoring a deeper half-point cut. Projections indicate the Fed may implement additional quarter-point reductions at upcoming meetings, though widespread appetite for steeper cuts appears lacking. This marks the Fed’s first rate adjustment since December, taking place amid heightened political scrutiny and a changing economic outlook.
Following the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut of 2025—a 25 basis point reduction—major U.S. banks including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America have lowered their prime lending rates from 7.50% to 7.25%. The prime rate is crucial as it affects interest rates on consumer products like mortgages, personal loans, and credit cards. The Fed’s decision to cut rates comes amid rising concern about economic growth and increasing unemployment, especially as jobless claims reach a four-year high. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and uncertainties over President Trump’s tariffs have heightened economic caution.
Experts note that lowered borrowing costs could stimulate loan originations and benefit both consumers and businesses, potentially boosting hiring and spending. However, despite this monetary easing, significant risks remain due to unresolved trade policies, immigration issues, and fiscal uncertainties. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon both expressed concern about the longer-term impact of these macroeconomic variables, with growth potentially being hampered by lingering unknowns related to tariffs and geopolitical developments.
Bitcoin’s Current Market Performance
As of September 18, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $117,093.00, experiencing a slight decrease of $88.00 (-0.00075%) from the previous close. The intraday high reached $117,935.00, while the low touched $114,924.00. This price action reflects the market’s response to recent economic developments and Bitcoin’s resilience amid broader financial uncertainties.
