Bitcoin On The Brink: Analyst Warns This Key Level Must Hold

Seasonal weakness and fading momentum put the $107k–$98k support band in the spotlight

Key Takeaways

• Analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) says Bitcoin’s correction aligns with the usual late-Q3 seasonal drawdown.
• He identifies $107k–$98k as the bull cycle’s “do-or-die” support where buyers must defend.
• Momentum has cooled, derivatives risk has risen, and macro crosswinds remain a headwind.
• A clean hold could reset the trend for a Q4 push; a breakdown opens the door to deeper losses.

Bitcoin’s latest pullback has reintroduced fear into a market that only weeks ago looked comfortably bid. According to crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA), the move is neither random nor unprecedented: it fits the market’s typical late-September pattern of weakness as liquidity thins and risk appetite wanes. What comes next, he argues, will be defined by one critical area.

“Hold $107k to $98K,” he warned, calling the zone the fulcrum for the next leg of the bull cycle.

The tone across spot and derivatives has turned cautious. Rallies are fading faster, intraday ranges are expanding, and liquidity pockets above recent highs are thinning out. With buyers stepping back and funding dynamics wobbling, Bitcoin is flirting with a technical air pocket that, if triggered, could accelerate downside.

Why this zone matters

• Cycle structure: The $107k–$98k band aligns with a high-volume node from the prior advance, where strong spot demand historically cushioned pullbacks.
• Trend integrity: It coincides with a cluster of moving averages from the current uptrend, making it a de facto trendline in price terms.
• Market psychology: It’s the line between “healthy consolidation” and “trend damage.” Lose it decisively and the market shifts from dip-buying to rally-selling.

Market internals flashing caution

• Momentum fatigue: Lower highs on intraday RSI and MACD divergences suggest buyers are losing control of short-term trend.
• Derivatives risk: Elevated open interest versus spot depth raises liquidation risk if volatility spikes through support.
• Skew and vol: A heavier put skew and uptick in implied volatility point to hedging demand and expectations of wider ranges.
• Spot flow: Mixed spot demand and inconsistent ETF inflows reduce the cushion usually provided during drawdowns.

Scenarios from here

If bulls defend $107k–$98k with conviction—visible via rising spot bid, declining net shorts, and a reset in funding—Bitcoin could carve out a base and reattempt the prior range highs into Q4. Historically, that timing aligns with post-September recoveries and year-end trend continuations when macro conditions aren’t deteriorating.

A clean break and daily close below the low end of the band, however, would argue for a deeper retracement into lower liquidity zones, forcing de-risking from overextended longs and potentially dragging price toward the mid-to-high $90ks or lower, where the next meaningful demand pockets reside.

What would invalidate the bull case?

• A daily close beneath $98k followed by failed retests (support turning into resistance) and expanding volume to the downside.
• Persistent negative spot-premium versus futures, indicating perma-levered structure without real spot absorption.
• Broad risk-off in macro—stronger dollar and rising real yields—sapping cross-asset liquidity and dampening crypto beta.

Levels to watch

• Immediate support: $107,000–$98,000 (must hold to preserve the cyclical uptrend structure).
• First resistance on bounces: Prior breakdown area and short-term moving averages where sellers reappear.
• Continuation trigger: A decisive reclaim of recent lower-highs with improving breadth and spot-led momentum.

Bottom line

The market has entered a prove-it phase. Seasonal weakness and fragile positioning put Bitcoin on the brink, and the $107k–$98k band is the battleground. Hold it, and the path of least resistance can rotate back upward into Q4. Lose it, and the market may have to reset expectations with a deeper, more painful washout before any trend resumes.